Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth in eight Asian developing countries using annual data from 1960 to 1997. While conventional wisdom suggests that export growth contribute positively to economic growth, this study also provides strong evidence supporting the export-led growth hypothesis. The empirical results show that bi-directional causality exists between export growth and economic growth in India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand. There is also evidence for export-led growth in Malaysia. Furthermore, there is evidence for short-run Granger causality running from economic growth to export growth in all cases except Sri Lanka. However, there is no strong evidence for short-run causality running from export growth to economic growth.
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